expectation

conventions shape and are reinforced by taboos—social expectations often crystallize around what is forbidden

Expectations are social constructs that arise from and persist through conventions—without shared conventions there is no basis for what people expect of each other

Expectations are social constructs that arise from and persist through established conventions—conventions create the normative expectations people orient toward

conventions are repeated social expectations that have been formalized into patterns; without expectations, there is nothing for a convention to stabilize

An anomaly is a deviation from what is expected — it requires the construct of expectation to function. Remove expectation and anomaly loses its meaning entirely. Constitutive present-tense dependency, not mere chronology.

Scripts are cognitive frameworks designed and maintained for the sake of structuring expectation - they organize what we expect to happen in familiar sequences of events. Law 8d: servant(script)->master(expectation).

Self-fulfilling prophecy requires an expectation (or belief) to operate — the phenomenon is triggered when someone holds an expectation that then drives behavior making it come true. Remove expectation and the mechanism ceases to function.

prediction-error requires expectation to operate now: the concept is literally the discrepancy between expected and actual outcomes. Remove expectation and prediction-error ceases — there is nothing predicted against which to measure error. The removal test passes: without expectation, the mechanism has no trigger.

surprise as a cognitive phenomenon requires expectation to operate: surprise is the response to violated expectation. Remove expectation and the cognitive mechanism of surprise cannot function — there is no baseline expectation to be violated. The removal test passes.

Overconfidence is the tendency to overestimate abilities/outcomes. Removal test: remove expectation and overconfidence stops operating — there is nothing to be 'over' about if no expectations can be formed. Overconfidence is an inflated-expectations pattern; it needs expectation as its substrate. Test: which came first? expectation (0.08) predates overconfidence (0.58). Files DEPENDS_ON from newer→older.

The placebo effect's mechanism is expectation-driven: a patient's belief in treatment efficacy produces physiological change. Removal test — remove expectation and the placebo effect stops operating entirely. The effect cannot function without the patient's expectation of benefit.

Anchoring bias operates through an expectation set by an initial value: remove expectation and the anchoring bias cannot function — without the capacity to form expectations about numerical magnitude, there is no anchor to bias subsequent judgments. Present-tense dependency: the cognitive mechanism requires expectation to operate now.

Removal test: remove expectation (prior anticipatory beliefs about what to encounter) and perceptual-set stops operating entirely - it has no mechanism without the expectations that constitute it. Direction tested: set depends on expectations.