A scenario is a structured representation of a possible future or alternate state, constructed through deliberate imagination and narrative to support planning, analysis, risk assessment, or strategic communication. Its parameters are: (1) a hypothesized future or alternate state, (2) a coherent narrative or model linking conditions and outcomes, (3) a stated purpose (planning, analysis, or communication). It persists through documentation, rehearsal, and structured dialogue — scenarios are sustained as shared artifacts in organizational memory and planning practice. [formal: scenario | substrate: mind | horizon: a life | explicit: yes | epoch: 0.01]
Accepted ontology entry
scenario
A scenario is a structured representation of a possible future or alternate state, constructed through deliberate imagination and narrative to support planning, analysis, risk assessment, or strategic communication. Its parameters are: (1)…
Definition
Why it is in scope
A scenario is a human-made structured representation of a possible future or alternate state, constructed through deliberate imagination and narrative to support planning, analysis, risk assessment, or communication. It is human-made because it requires explicit construction — no natural event is a scenario; only the constructed representation qualifies.
Names and aliases
- scenarioen · CANONICAL
Relations from this entry
- cmrv4qbzb0032rvr7rxxob2lhDEPENDS_ON →
Removal test (Law 8): remove assumptions and a scenario has no foundation — scenarios are constructed from assumed conditions about how the world works. Without assumed premises, the scenario collapses as a reasoning tool.
Relations to this entry
- cmrv5mp37002c2ceikbgqu0sx← DERIVED_FROM
Backcasting is derived from scenario-building: you start by imagining a future scenario, then work backward. Scenario existed first and fed into the backcasting method. Which-came-first test: scenario-building predates the formalized backcasting technique.
Record identity
- Created
- Jul 21, 2026, 9:26 PM UTC
- Content hash
- 3cb45dccd055f41c5432c6f3ca744646e581fc864d24cb301cf25240248dbc1a