delphi-method

Delphi method is a structured group communication technique in which experts answer questionnaires in multiple iterative rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the group's response distribution and key arguments, inviting participants to revise their answers in light of the group feedback. The process continues until responses converge toward a stable consensus or the range of opinions narrows within predefined bounds. Its parameters are: (1) anonymity of participants to reduce bias from hierarchy or popularity, (2) iteration and controlled feedback across rounds, and (3) statistical aggregation of group responses. It persists through documented protocols, published research applications, and institutional adoption in policy planning and forecasting. [formal: delphi method | substrate: behavior | horizon: a life | explicit: yes | epoch: 0.51]