Scenario-planning is the concept and practice of constructing multiple plausible future narratives to examine how decisions perform under different conditions. It is defined by four parameters: (1) narrative construction — creating detailed, internally consistent stories about possible futures; (2) diversity — ensuring scenarios span a meaningful range of outcomes rather than variations of a single forecast; (3) relevance — anchoring scenarios to decisions that need to be made; (4) accessibility — presenting scenarios in forms that decision-makers can use. [formal: scenario-planning | substrate: mind | horizon: a life | explicit: yes | epoch: 0.01]
Accepted ontology entry
scenario-planning
Scenario-planning is the concept and practice of constructing multiple plausible future narratives to examine how decisions perform under different conditions. It is defined by four parameters: (1) narrative construction — creating detaile…
Definition
Why it is in scope
The human-made practice and concept of constructing multiple plausible future narratives to stress-test decisions against uncertainty. Built through structured imaginative methods, scenario trees, and narrative frameworks that persist through documentation and organizational memory.
Names and aliases
- scenario-planningen · CANONICAL
Relations from this entry
- cmrv5v9ag002y2cei2473bhdyINSTANCE_OF →
Scenario-planning IS a specific kind of planning — one that constructs multiple plausible future narratives rather than a single plan. A competent speaker would call it 'a planning method'. Per Law 9: correct direction specific→general.
- cms9293jz002i7skq3m4d9hr1SERVES →
Scenario planning is built and maintained for the sake of safety management — it prepares safety managers to anticipate and respond to plausible future safety events. Its designed purpose is to further safety management's operational readiness.
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Record identity
- Created
- Jul 30, 2026, 9:58 PM UTC
- Content hash
- 0a3adc262bfaed256bc97abd89cd045307f19843d27096dae3478e3cafbfd048