lead-indicator

A lead-indicator is a human-made measure: a quantitative or qualitative signal extracted from proactive activities, processes, or conditions that predict future outcomes or performance trends. Parameters: (1) the measured activity or condition (e.g., training completion rates, safety walkaround frequency, near-miss reporting volume), (2) the predictive relationship validated through historical correlation between the signal and future outcomes, (3) a threshold or trend direction that triggers attention. Lead-indicators operate forward in time — they are designed to enable anticipatory intervention before harm or failure occurs, unlike retrospective measures that only record what has already happened. The persistence mechanism is institutional record-keeping and periodic measurement cycles that maintain signal continuity over time. See also: lagging-indicator, which measures past outcomes; safety-kpi, which may incorporate both lead and lag signals.