calibration plot

A calibration plot (reliability diagram) is a diagnostic visualization for probabilistic classifiers that compares predicted probabilities against observed outcome frequencies. The x-axis divides predictions into bins of predicted probability; the y-axis shows the empirical proportion of positive outcomes in each bin. A perfectly calibrated model follows the diagonal reference line. Points above the line indicate under-confidence (model underestimates probability); points below indicate over-confidence. Calibration plots diagnose systematic miscalibration and guide post-hoc calibration techniques such as isotonic regression or Platt scaling. [formal: diagramma calibrationis | substrate: mind | horizon: a moment | explicit: yes | epoch: 0.01]